March 2024 – Knowing the Numbers in Commercial Real Estate

Office Market

Despite being more than four years removed from the onset of COVID, pandemic-catalyzed shiftsin demand continue to drive uncertainty in the Phoenix office market. Users are scrutinizing theefficiency and sizing of their existing office space amid these shifting workplace strategies. Sometenants have opted to shrink and consolidate their footprints while others are no longer leasingbigger blocks of space in anticipation of future headcount growth. The structural lowering ofdemand has led to a more than 50% increase in the amount of vacant office space since 19Q4with 2023 marking an acceleration of the move-out trend compared to the prior two years.

SUB-MARKET TOTAL SF AVAILABLE VACANCY RATE MARKET RENT NET ABSORPTION SF UNDER CONSTRUCT SF
TOTAL: 196M 16.1% $29.61 -680k 810K
4 & 5 STAR 72M 25.3% $34.94 -429K 623K
3 STAR 85M 12.8% $28.04 -48K 187K
1 & 2 STAR 39M 6.9% $23.17 -202K 0

INDUSTRIAL MARKET

The Phoenix industrial market is navigating a period of dislocation as recordsupply overwhelms tenant demand. Builders delivered more than 23 million SF inthe second half of 2023, outpacing the cumulative completion total from 2017 to2019. The substantial supply injection,much of which was built on spec, causedvacancy to spike from the low 4% range in 23Q2 to 9.1% today.

SUB-MARKET TOTAL SF AVAILABLE VACANCY RATE MARKET RENT NET ABSORPTION SF UNDER CONSTRUCT SF
TOTAL: 453M 9.1% $13.57 408K 43M
LOGISTICS 326M 10.6% $13.11 1.1M 37M
SPECIALIZED 93M 3.6% $13.54 -219K 5M
FLEX 34M 9.2% $18.51 -516K 794K

MULTI-FAMILY MARKET

Though renter demand rebounded in 2023, Phoenix’s aggressive delivery schedule overwhelmed sturdyleasing activity, causing market conditions to weaken for back-to-back years. Vacancy has been on asteady upward trend over the past eight quarters and now stands at the highest level in over a decadeat 10.6% as of early 2024. Amid increased competition, local operators have shifted their focus tomaintaining occupancy at the expense of revenue gains, keeping rent growth decidedly negative at -1.9%and concession usage elevated. This persistent imbalance between supply and demand is expected tocontinue in the coming quarters as the full effect of the construction pipeline is felt.

SUB-MARKET TOTAL SF AVAILABLE VACANCY RATE MARKET RENT NET ABSORPTION UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCT UNITS
TOTAL: 384K 10.7% $1.563 2K 35K
4 & 5 STAR 181K 11.4% $1,792 2K 24K
3 STAR 143K 10.8% $1,407 528 11K
1 & 2 STAR 60K 8.5% $1,142 19 0

RETAIL MARKET

The Phoenix retail market is firing on cylinders in early 2024, with vacancy, space availability,and rent growth at multi-decade bests. Powerful demographics, healthy consumptiongrowth, and the expanding local economy underpin robust retail demand. Additionally, a lackof construction and limited store closures further contribute to tight market conditions. Thesedynamics are expected to continue over the near term, setting Phoenix up for another year ofoutperformance.

SUB-MARKET TOTAL SF AVAILABLE VACANCY RATE MARKET RENT NET ABSORPTION SF UNDER CONSTRUCT SF
TOTAL: 242M 4.6% $24.88 369K 2.7M
POWER CENTER 32M 4.1% $27.63 -88K 43K
NEIGHBORHOOD CENTER 92M 5.5% $24.25 93K 230K
GENERAL RETAIL 85M 3.0% $23.90 0K 2M

April 2024 – Knowing The Numbers in Commercial Real Estate

The April 2024 report provides key insights including rising vacancies in office and industrial spaces due to changing demands and increased supply, while the retail sector thrives with low vacancies and robust rent growth. The multi-family sector faces increased vacancies despite high leasing activity. Explore the latest trends, challenges, and opportunities in the Phoenix market to stay informed and make strategic decisions.

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March 2024 – Knowing the Numbers in Commercial Real Estate

The March 2024 report’s key highlights include ongoing uncertainty in the office market due to post-pandemic shifts, a spike in industrial vacancies from a surge in supply, increased vacancies in the multi-family sector despite strong leasing activity, and robust performance in the retail market with low vacancies and strong rent growth. This detailed analysis helps in understanding current market trends and making informed decisions.

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