February 2024 – Knowing the Numbers in Commercial Real Estate

Office Market

Even though over four years have passed since the start of the COVID pandemic, changes indemand caused by it still generate uncertainty in the Phoenix office market. Users are carefullyevaluating the effectiveness and size of their current office spaces in light of evolving workplacestrategies. Some tenants are choosing to reduce and centralize their space while others arerefraining from leasing larger areas, anticipating future staff expansions. The persistent decreasein demand has resulted in a more than 50% rise in vacant office space since the fourth quarter of2019, with 2023 witnessing a faster pace of moving out compared to the previous two years.

SUB-MARKET TOTAL SF AVAILABLE VACANCY RATE MARKET RENT NET ABSORPTION SF UNDER CONSTRUCT SF
TOTAL: 196M 15.9% $29.69 -199K 990K
4 & 5 STAR 70M 24.8% $35.02 -178K 803K
3 STAR 87M 13.0% $28.27 114K 187K
1 & 2 STAR 40M 6.8% $23.39 -135K 0

INDUSTRIAL MARKET

The Phoenix industrial market is in flux as an abundance of supply overwhelmstenant demand. In the latter half of 2023, builders delivered over 23 million SF,exceeding the total completed from 2017 to 2019. This surge, much speculative,spiked vacancy from around 4% in 23Q2 to 8.5% today.

SUB-MARKET TOTAL SF AVAILABLE VACANCY RATE MARKET RENT NET ABSORPTION SF UNDER CONSTRUCT SF
TOTAL: 450M 8.5% $13.30 -573K 44M
LOGISTICS 323M 10% $12.86 -8K 39M
SPECIALIZED 93M 3.5% $13.10 -76K 5M
FLEX 34M 8.9% $18.44 -489K 659K

MULTI-FAMILY MARKET

Although renter demand saw a resurgence in 2023, Phoenix faced an aggressive delivery schedule thatoutpaced robust leasing activity, resulting in weakening market conditions for consecutive years. Vacancyhas steadily risen over the last eight quarters, reaching its highest level in over a decade at 10.9% inearly 2024. Faced with heightened competition, local operators have shifted their focus to maintainingoccupancy, leading to negative rent growth at -2.0% and increased concession usage. This ongoingimbalance between supply and demand is anticipated to persist in the upcoming quarters as the fullimpact of the construction pipeline is realized.

SUB-MARKET TOTAL SF AVAILABLE VACANCY RATE MARKET RENT NET ABSORPTION UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCT UNITS
TOTAL: 382K 10.9% $1.557 891 35K
4 & 5 STAR 180K 11.6% $1,786 614 24K
3 STAR 143K 10.8% $1,399 294 11K
1 & 2 STAR 60K 8.5% $1,146 -17 0

RETAIL MARKET

In early 2024, the Phoenix retail market is firing on all cylinders, boasting multi-decadebests in vacancy rates, space availability, and rent growth. Strong demographic trends,steady consumption growth, and the burgeoning local economy provide a solid foundationfor robust retail demand. Furthermore, the relatively low amount of new construction andminimal store closures add to the tight market conditions. These factors are anticipated topersist in the near term, positioning Phoenix for another year of exceptional performance.

SUB-MARKET TOTAL SF AVAILABLE VACANCY RATE MARKET RENT NET ABSORPTION SF UNDER CONSTRUCT SF
TOTAL: 242M 4.5% $24.85 159K 2.6M
POWER CENTER 32M 3.8% $27.49 13K 51K
NEIGHBORHOOD CENTER 92M 5.6% $24.24 15K 181K
GENERAL RETAIL 85M 2.8% $23.91 -122K 2.1M

February 2024 – Knowing the Numbers in Commercial Real Estate

The February 2024 in-depth look at Phoenix’s commercial real estate market shows that the office market sees continued uncertainty post-pandemic with increasing vacancies. Industrial spaces face a surge in vacancies due to excessive supply. The multi-family sector experiences rising vacancies despite strong leasing activity, while the retail market thrives with low vacancies and strong rent growth. This analysis highlights key market trends, challenges, and opportunities to guide strategic decision-making.

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